Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 19.323948 23.316408 27.738751 32.974584 38.977128 45.616149 53.486030
2025-03-30 13.151538 18.238468 24.490888 32.625337 42.803061 54.986193 70.529515
2025-04-06 10.467296 16.154388 23.710916 34.231543 48.216093 65.865369 89.482606
2025-04-13 7.438230 12.786100 20.458948 31.853954 47.871890 69.072795 98.658496
2025-04-20 6.083321 11.448278 19.647407 32.467847 51.290234 77.121039 114.314490
2025-04-27 5.119386 10.479046 19.154986 33.355936 55.007584 85.652879 130.955957
2025-05-04 4.408776 9.763698 18.903035 34.490602 59.061491 94.783889 148.798625
2025-05-11 3.756086 9.000637 18.430113 35.162423 62.382656 102.959686 165.606935
2025-05-18 3.090466 8.056004 17.484853 34.910137 64.173584 108.896149 179.374502
2025-05-25 2.446904 6.993718 16.148183 33.803111 64.439601 112.460247 189.712607
2025-06-01 2.009170 6.264677 15.310019 33.441064 65.834899 117.751524 202.783009
2025-06-08 1.563571 5.387879 14.027778 32.097289 65.415772 120.097187 211.372001
2025-06-15 1.370393 5.134067 14.072343 33.413294 69.975288 131.101553 234.641729
2025-06-22 1.080195 4.523662 13.250883 32.972660 71.437590 137.239514 250.727922
2025-06-29 0.961591 4.375090 13.445521 34.586845 76.734978 149.997437 277.932908
2025-07-06 0.669690 3.539058 11.824462 32.188961 74.319755 149.526920 283.584047
2025-07-13 0.562494 3.292417 11.621434 32.808008 77.683151 159.138733 306.201569
2025-07-20 0.481947 3.109898 11.549898 33.703550 81.634875 169.948670 331.216407
2025-07-27 0.420461 2.976760 11.587608 34.847681 86.148323 181.945306 358.658785
2025-08-03 0.355521 2.792055 11.438281 35.525078 89.743390 192.428656 383.870052
2025-08-10 0.281122 2.510496 10.933859 35.270701 91.371265 199.371907 403.196104
2025-08-17 0.206701 2.163534 10.131897 34.154462 91.067154 202.688940 416.274936
2025-08-24 0.159550 1.932910 9.649955 33.789390 92.332948 208.976271 434.776132